USDA Crop Projections: What Do You Think? - Ontario Agriculture2024-03-28T16:18:07Zhttps://ontag.farms.com/forum/topics/usda-crop-projections-what-do?commentId=3646443%3AComment%3A1097&feed=yes&xn_auth=noHere is the latest market rev…tag:ontag.farms.com,2009-09-12:3646443:Comment:10972009-09-12T16:04:25.000ZMoe Agostinohttps://ontag.farms.com/profile/MoeAgostino
Here is the latest market review....<br />
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This latest USDA Crop Production and WASDE report was neutral for corn soybeans and wheat.<br />
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There were no real big surprises as corn and soybean yields were slightly lower than the average estimate.<br />
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If there were any surprises it was the slight increase in ending stocks for both corn and soybeans and the increase in feed and residual use for corn. There was no change in ethanol use but with a record July and August production we expect ethanol use to go up…
Here is the latest market review....<br />
<br />
This latest USDA Crop Production and WASDE report was neutral for corn soybeans and wheat.<br />
<br />
There were no real big surprises as corn and soybean yields were slightly lower than the average estimate.<br />
<br />
If there were any surprises it was the slight increase in ending stocks for both corn and soybeans and the increase in feed and residual use for corn. There was no change in ethanol use but with a record July and August production we expect ethanol use to go up in future reports particularly if oil prices remain at current levels.<br />
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Corn prices will bottom around US $3.00/bushel, soybeans in the US $8.50 - $$9.00/bu and wheat prices will bottom when corn does in the next 30 – 60 days. Wheat will lose a lot of acres this fall/winter and corn will need more acres next year in a rising demand environment. This will also put a bottom in for canola, oats and barley prices. Seasonally the lowest prices of the year are from October 1 – December 1 of each year. We feel that 2009 could be similar to 2006 when grain prices started to rally on October 1st of that year as the markets turned there attention to new crop and started worrying about having enough bushels to meet demand.<br />
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Demand has been stronger than most had expected and with the IMF projected a 2,5% GDP growth next year currently at a -1.3% coupled with our forecast for the US dollar to trade as low as US $72 cents will cause demand to trump supply and send grain prices higher in 2010. At current grain prices 2010/11 looks like an oilseed market once again.<br />
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We see very little downside risk from here more upside risk. Weather remains favorable for late crop development and temperatures are slightly above average for the 10-14 day forecast.<br />
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Until Next Week, Have a Great Weekend,<br />
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Maurizio (Moe) Agostino, HBA, DMS, FCSI<br />
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Managing Commodity Strategist<br />
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Farms.com Risk Management<br />
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Toll-Free: 1-877-438-5729 ext. 5040<br />
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Cell: 1-519-871-2134<br />
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Fax: 1-519-438-3152<br />
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E-mail: moe.agostino@farms.com<br />
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Website: <a href="http://riskmanagement.farms.com">http://riskmanagement.farms.com</a>