Ontario Agriculture

The network for agriculture in Ontario, Canada

Just how big a mortgage can people carry?

This is a scary reality that may hit Ontario - hard. It won't take much to double an interest payment - maybe even triple and quadruple -- and still only be at 10 percent. I know driving into London - I see many homes that I can't figure out how everyday families afford. Pretty soon they may realize they can't afford them and this economy is back in the tank.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/just...

Jeff Rubin

When money is free, it’s hard not to borrow it, even if the lender keeps warning you to be vigilant against debt. That’s exactly what Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney has been telling Canadians while at the same time keeping their cost of borrowing as low as it’s ever been.

The obvious question, of course, is, if caution is warranted in borrowing, why is the cost of money so cheap? Since no one wants to pay more for their loans, particularly mortgage-holders, it’s a question no one bothers to ask Governor Carney.

But ask you should. Because the Bank of Canada’s free-money policy may lead you to places you’d rather not go.

A financial bubble is built on an unsustainable premise. Tomorrow’s bubble in the Canadian housing market is constructed on the premise that today’s record low mortgage rates will remain in place. And that, in turn, is based on the idea that inflation will continue to dissipate in the face of a slack economy.

Neither premise should be in your financial plan.

Today’s inflation rate is no more sustainable than today’s interest rates. Both are rear-view mirrors on where the economy has been, not where it is going.

Energy prices, which were falling a year ago, are now back on the rise. Just as the inflationary impact of those prices triggered the fatal rise in interest rates which, in turn, gave us the deepest postwar global recession ever, energy prices will once again push inflation and interest rates much higher. (See my post Financial Crisis or Energy Shock? for more on this.)

And this time the inflationary fallout won’t just be in the energy component of the Consumer Price Index. The impact will be much broader, as soaring transport prices encourage higher-cost local production to replace sourcing from cheap labor markets halfway around the world.

Stress test your floating-rate mortgage three or four percentage points from today’s level and take a good, long look at the resulting increase in your monthly mortgage payment. For some homeowners, that could be as much as another $1000 per month.

Twenty years ago a similar shock to borrowing rates caused Canadian housing prices to fall by an unprecedented 25 per cent. I know because I called it.

That call was as much about where interest rates were going as it was about where housing prices were heading. Based on current borrowing rates, today’s homeowners will be facing almost as large an increase as they did back then.

So heed Governor Carney’s caution when you decide how big a mortgage you can really afford to carry.

Because once the Bank of Canada starts raising your mortgage rate, it will be a very long time before they stop.

Views: 664

▶ Reply to This

Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Dale Ketcheson on December 25, 2009 at 2:04pm
On a slight tangent, what lenders seem to be the most receptive to consolidating/refinancing farm loans at these lower interest rates? Anybody had any particularly pleasant experiences?
Permalink Reply by John Schwartzentruber on December 28, 2009 at 6:31am
Dale, I've found both FCC and BMO to be first rate for our needs. Very flexible and accommodating.

On the topic of interest rates, 20%+ didn't last that long, but long enough to kill a lot of us. And we thought it was bad.

Well, 3% - 5% interest rates will end up killing off more people than 20% did because as nice as it seems to have low interest, it will get a lot of people way too far into debt. And when the rates inevitably go back up to more normal levels . . .

Low interest rates are likely the only thing that have staved off bankruptcy for a lot of beef and pork producers.
Permalink Reply by Wayne Black on December 28, 2009 at 2:09pm
Dale, I found that FCC was very accomodating (once I got talking with the right person. It took a bit of persuading to get the person to look into my account to see what the fees would be andwhat the resulting rates would be.
At the end of the day we re-financed most of our fixed rate loans and we are saving money even after paying the fees.
This occured in February of this year.

Dale Ketcheson said:
On a slight tangent, what lenders seem to be the most receptive to consolidating/refinancing farm loans at these lower interest rates? Anybody had any particularly pleasant experiences?
Permalink Reply by Dale Ketcheson on December 28, 2009 at 3:12pm
Thanks guys.
Permalink Reply by rein minnema on December 30, 2009 at 7:02am
It is time to start looking at longterm fixed rates, you do pay a premium but there is more room for the rates to go up than down.
See it as a insurance policy/ protection for stability

Wayne Black said:
Dale, I found that FCC was very accomodating (once I got talking with the right person. It took a bit of persuading to get the person to look into my account to see what the fees would be andwhat the resulting rates would be.
At the end of the day we re-financed most of our fixed rate loans and we are saving money even after paying the fees.
This occured in February of this year.

Dale Ketcheson said:
On a slight tangent, what lenders seem to be the most receptive to consolidating/refinancing farm loans at these lower interest rates? Anybody had any particularly pleasant experiences?
Permalink Reply by Rob Gamble on January 5, 2010 at 3:17am
If you are looking for a loan calculator you can find one on the OMAFRA web site at http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/busdev/download/calc_omafloan.htm. It can calculate a whole range of options. I have also attached it to this post.
Attachments:
Permalink Reply by Steve Twynstra on January 5, 2010 at 5:27am
Thanks Rob....and here I have been making up my own worksheets in Excel all these years....with less detail.

▶ Reply to Discussion

RSS

Agriculture Headlines from Farms.com Canada East News - click on title for full story

Soybean Fungicide Decisions

As soybean crops move into flowering, questions are sure to be raised about whether fungicide applications are needed. In anticipation, let’s take a closer look at the potential disease threats and what Manitoba On-Farm Network research has told us. What Should We Be Concerned About? Foliar diseases infecting soybeans in Manitoba typically occur at low severity levels and are not expected to impact yield most years. These usually include bacterial blight, downy mildew and Septoria brown spot. Stem diseases generally have a greater impact on yield. White mould: infections begin at nodes along the main stem. Wilted plants may be spotted from afar, within a humid canopy may find white mycelial growth and black sclerotia bodies later in the season. This disease is the main target of fungicide applications. Cool, wet conditions throughout July and August favour white mould. For every 10% increase in the percent of plants infected with white mould, 2-5 bu/ac of yield are lost in soybeans.

Fungicide Decision Tool for Managing Mycosphaerella Blight in Field Peas

When your peas have reached V10 (10th node stage), it is an ideal time to start scouting each field to evaluate if a fungicide application to manage Mycosphaerella blight is warranted. Continue scouting for symptoms from V10 (10th true node) to R2 (beginning bloom), during mid-June to late July. Mycosphaerella (Ascochyta) blight is the most widespread and economically damaging foliar disease of Manitoba field peas. Peas are the single host crop of Mycosphaerella but it can be managed by foliar fungicide. This pathogen can be stubble-, air-, soil- and seed-borne. Spores can travel long distances by air, meaning there is a disease risk even in fields where peas have not been grown previously. The impact of disease severity on yield will depend on how early the disease sets in and how quickly it progresses into the upper crop canopy. Early infections during the bloom to early/mid-pod stages cause the most damage if left untreated. Use this fungicide decision worksheet when scouting to

Manitoba pork, canola producers hold steady amid heavy tariffs

A slab of back bacon from Natural Raised Pork comes with a waitlist. Ian Smith points to tariffs. Since the United States placed levies on imports from Canada, Manitobans have increasingly been calling Smith about his farm near Argyle, some 40 kilometres northwest of Winnipeg. “There’s more people wanting to support local and I’m one of few people that do what I’m doing,” said Smith, 62. He estimates 90 per cent of his pork products are bought by Manitoba households; the latter goes to a packing plant. Last year, it was a 50-50 split. Smith works alone, hustling to meet the four-to-six week waitlist that’s accumulated. He keeps hundreds of feeder pigs and a couple dozen sows; it’s a relatively small operation, he noted. “If there’s any mistakes to be made, there’s only one person to blame and that’s me,” he said with a laugh. Smith doesn’t export to China — so he’s shielded from that nation’s levies still hanging over the Canadian industry.

KAP Welcomes Appointment of New U.S. Trade Representative

Keystone Agricultural Producers (KAP) welcomes the appointment of Richard Madan as Manitoba’s new trade representative to the United States. “We commend Premier Kinew and Minister Moses for making Manitoba’s voice a priority in Washington, D.C.,” said KAP President Jill Verwey. “We look forward to working with Mr. Madan to advance the interests of Manitoba farmers and the agricultural industry, ensuring these interests are at the forefront of his work as he forges stronger relationships with American policymakers and trade officials.” Agriculture is an important part of Manitoba’s economy, with $4.29 billion in agri-food exports to the U.S. alone in 2024, and KAP sees the new presence in Washington as instrumental in fostering strategic relationships with key states that are important to our trade interests. “The U.S. is Manitoba’s largest agri-food export destination and is one of Manitoba’s key trading partners on the international stage,” added KAP General Manager Colin Hornby. “

2025 Annual General Meeting

On Wednesday, June 18th, the Ontario Farmland Trust hosted its Annual General Meeting. The meeting was held hybrid again this year, with members and friends joining both virtually and in person.

© 2025   Created by Darren Marsland.   Powered by

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service