New Leaked Ethanol Mandate Projections From Reuters

Reuters is reporting the EPA has proposed a new 2014 renewable fuel target of 15.21 billion gallons in total, of which 2.21 billion must come from "advanced" biofuel sources. This would imply a reduction in the 2014 mandate for ethanol to 13.0 billion gallons, down from a 13.8 billion mandate in 2013 and a prescribed 14.4 billion mandate for 2014. According to Reuters, the new EPA proposed renewable fuel targets for 2014 would mandate the use of 23 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol and hold the biodiesel portion of the mandate steady at 1.28 billion gallons. These rumors of biofuel mandate cuts helped fuel further losses in corn futures to trade to new contract lows at $4,324/bushel. 2013 October WADE report estimates for 2013 corn ending stocks were estimated at 1,923 billion bushels with this new law we could see 301 million less corn bushels in usage for ethanol . The proposed EPA rule would go on to a public comment period and could become law later this year. If it becomes law the USDA will need to adjust 2013 corn usage for ethanol from 4.9 billion bushels to 4.6 billion bushels approximately which is bearish for corn futures as 2013 ending stocks could jump to 2.224 billion bushels not seen since 1987.

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