Ontario Agriculture

The network for agriculture in Ontario, Canada

USDA Crop Projections: What Do You Think?

Summary of the data.
By Moe Agostino, Risk Management Specialist, Farms.com

Here is some analysis of the August data.


USDA AUGUST WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) REPORT HIGHLIGHTS

US CROP Production Report

WHEAT

US Total wheat production is estimated at 2.184 billion bushels up 71 million from last month with increase in all classes of wheat except for soft red winter. 2009/10 ending stocks are projected 36 million bushels higher to 743 million bushels as a higher production forecast more than offsets an increase in projected use and lower imports. Feed and residual use is raised 5 million bushels with the larger crop. Exports are projected 25 million bushels higher than last month, with lower production for Canada and Argentina which are major competitors in the western hemisphere wheat market. Global wheat supplies are projected 5.0 million higher with higher beginning stocks and increased prospects for global production. The 2009/10 marketing year average farm price is projected at US $4.70 - $5.70/bu down .10 cents on both ends of the range from last month.

SOYBEANS

Soybean production is estimated at 3.20 billion bushels, 61 million below the July estimate. Soybean yields are projected at 41.7 bpa down .9 bpa from last month but 2.1 above last years yields. 09/10 ending stocks are projected at 210 million bushels down 40 million from last month as reduced supplies only partly offset by reduced crush and exports. Soybean crush is reduced by 10 million bushels to 1.265 billion. Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 422.6 million tons, down 0.9 million tons from last month but still a record high. The 2009/10 marketing year average farm price is projected at US $8.40 - $10.40/bu up .10 cents on both ends of the range from last month. Soybean meal prices are projected at $260 to $320 per short ton, up $5 on both ends of the range.


CORN

2009/10 corn production is projected at 12.8 billion bushels up 471 million bushels from last month. The US national average yield is projected at 159.5 bpa up 6.1 bpa from last month. Higher yields this month more than offset a small reduction in harvested area updated from the June Acreage Report. US corn supplies are projected at a record 14.5 billion bushels, up 134 million from the previous record in 2007/08. Despite reduced prospects for livestock production 09/10 feed and residual use is projected 100 million bushels higher. Food, seed and industrial use is higher by 100 million bushels with higher expected use for ethanol supported by favorable ethanol producer returns and strong incentives for ethanol blending. Corn exports are projected 150 million bushels higher reflecting lower foreign production prospects and stronger expected import demand from Mexico and Taiwan. 09/10 ending stocks are projected at 1.621 up 71 million bushels from last month. The 2009/10 marketing year average farm price is projected at US $3.10 - $3.90/bu down .25 cents on both ends of the range from last month.

Views: 547

▶ Reply to This

Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Moe Agostino on September 12, 2009 at 5:04am
Here is the latest market review....

This latest USDA Crop Production and WASDE report was neutral for corn soybeans and wheat.

There were no real big surprises as corn and soybean yields were slightly lower than the average estimate.

If there were any surprises it was the slight increase in ending stocks for both corn and soybeans and the increase in feed and residual use for corn. There was no change in ethanol use but with a record July and August production we expect ethanol use to go up in future reports particularly if oil prices remain at current levels.

Corn prices will bottom around US $3.00/bushel, soybeans in the US $8.50 - $$9.00/bu and wheat prices will bottom when corn does in the next 30 – 60 days. Wheat will lose a lot of acres this fall/winter and corn will need more acres next year in a rising demand environment. This will also put a bottom in for canola, oats and barley prices. Seasonally the lowest prices of the year are from October 1 – December 1 of each year. We feel that 2009 could be similar to 2006 when grain prices started to rally on October 1st of that year as the markets turned there attention to new crop and started worrying about having enough bushels to meet demand.



Demand has been stronger than most had expected and with the IMF projected a 2,5% GDP growth next year currently at a -1.3% coupled with our forecast for the US dollar to trade as low as US $72 cents will cause demand to trump supply and send grain prices higher in 2010. At current grain prices 2010/11 looks like an oilseed market once again.



We see very little downside risk from here more upside risk. Weather remains favorable for late crop development and temperatures are slightly above average for the 10-14 day forecast.





Until Next Week, Have a Great Weekend,



Maurizio (Moe) Agostino, HBA, DMS, FCSI

Managing Commodity Strategist

Farms.com Risk Management

Toll-Free: 1-877-438-5729 ext. 5040

Cell: 1-519-871-2134

Fax: 1-519-438-3152

E-mail: moe.agostino@farms.com

Website: http://riskmanagement.farms.com

▶ Reply to Discussion

RSS

Agriculture Headlines from Farms.com Canada East News - click on title for full story

OFCAF Producer Perspective on Virtual Fencing – Cody Claypool

On a cold Alberta night, few jobs are less appealing than heading out to move polywire so cattle can keep making the most of a swath-grazing field. For producer Cody Claypool, virtual fencing offered a way to reduce that winter labour while still controlling how his herd accessed feed and helping capture the full value of swath grazing. Instead of bundling up in the dark to shift electric fence, Cody could check his cattle’s movements from the comfort of home — even in the middle of the night — and make management decisions from his phone. That practical fit is what made the technology worth trying on the Claypool operation, where Cody manages a herd of approximately 400 cattle and is always looking for ways to make grazing more efficient without adding more hours to already full winter days. Cody’s parents first learned about virtual fencing at an Alberta Stockgrowers meeting, where RDAR CEO Mark Redmond and Olds Researcher Briana Elliot gave presentations. Their interest was piqued

British Columbia organizations coming together to boost skills and talent training in Canadian food and ingredient ecosystem

As Canada works to reach its full opportunity to do more with what it grows, there’s an increasing need to train and produce skilled workers across the food production and value-added agriculture value-chain. Today, to help address this need, Protein Industries Canada is announcing a new project with BC Food & Beverage (BCFB), the University of British Columbia (UBC) and Cultivated Food Labs (CFL), to develop and deliver a new coordinated skills training program. Canada’s ability to Make More Here presents an opportunity to unlock $25 billion in GDP and upwards of 17,000 new innovation-based jobs. BCFB, UBC and CFL are combining their expertise to ensure enough skilled talent is ready to fill these jobs, providing companies across Canada with the workforce needed to help reach new growth potential and new markets. “A strong and resilient agri-food sector depends on a highly skilled workforce,” said the Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Industry and Minister responsible for Canada

Barn Boards and Baling Wire

One morning when we still lived on the farm, I looked out the front window and saw the barn door was open. A horse was standing by the corn crib not 10 feet from the road. It wasn’t my horse, but still I had that sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach. We had rented out a stall to an Amish neighbor to board his horses for a month while he was doing some logging nearby. He paid the rent with several loads of firewood. As a bonus he spread some of that high-octane Percheron exhaust on the garden, so it was a good deal all around. The neighbor arrived within a few minutes to tend to the wayward horse, so it all ended well. But that sinking feeling brought back memories of all those times in my youth when somebody left a door or a gate unlocked and the cows got out – usually onto the road and almost always at the most inconvenient time. Chasing cows at three o’clock in the morning is not fun, especially when your school bus is due to arrive at 7 a.m. We came home recently after being

Grain Safety is Literally a Matter of Life and Death

BeGrainSafe Week encourages safe grain handling practices through education, rescue training, and awareness programs aimed at reducing preventable farm accidents across Canada.

Pre Harvest Glyphosate Timing Protects Crop Markets

Growers are encouraged to follow proper glyphosate application timing to reduce residue risks, protect grain quality, and maintain market access for canola, cereal, and pulse crops.

© 2026   Created by Darren Marsland.   Powered by

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service