Ontario Agriculture

The network for agriculture in Ontario, Canada

USDA Crop Projections: What Do You Think?

Summary of the data.
By Moe Agostino, Risk Management Specialist, Farms.com

Here is some analysis of the August data.


USDA AUGUST WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) REPORT HIGHLIGHTS

US CROP Production Report

WHEAT

US Total wheat production is estimated at 2.184 billion bushels up 71 million from last month with increase in all classes of wheat except for soft red winter. 2009/10 ending stocks are projected 36 million bushels higher to 743 million bushels as a higher production forecast more than offsets an increase in projected use and lower imports. Feed and residual use is raised 5 million bushels with the larger crop. Exports are projected 25 million bushels higher than last month, with lower production for Canada and Argentina which are major competitors in the western hemisphere wheat market. Global wheat supplies are projected 5.0 million higher with higher beginning stocks and increased prospects for global production. The 2009/10 marketing year average farm price is projected at US $4.70 - $5.70/bu down .10 cents on both ends of the range from last month.

SOYBEANS

Soybean production is estimated at 3.20 billion bushels, 61 million below the July estimate. Soybean yields are projected at 41.7 bpa down .9 bpa from last month but 2.1 above last years yields. 09/10 ending stocks are projected at 210 million bushels down 40 million from last month as reduced supplies only partly offset by reduced crush and exports. Soybean crush is reduced by 10 million bushels to 1.265 billion. Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 422.6 million tons, down 0.9 million tons from last month but still a record high. The 2009/10 marketing year average farm price is projected at US $8.40 - $10.40/bu up .10 cents on both ends of the range from last month. Soybean meal prices are projected at $260 to $320 per short ton, up $5 on both ends of the range.


CORN

2009/10 corn production is projected at 12.8 billion bushels up 471 million bushels from last month. The US national average yield is projected at 159.5 bpa up 6.1 bpa from last month. Higher yields this month more than offset a small reduction in harvested area updated from the June Acreage Report. US corn supplies are projected at a record 14.5 billion bushels, up 134 million from the previous record in 2007/08. Despite reduced prospects for livestock production 09/10 feed and residual use is projected 100 million bushels higher. Food, seed and industrial use is higher by 100 million bushels with higher expected use for ethanol supported by favorable ethanol producer returns and strong incentives for ethanol blending. Corn exports are projected 150 million bushels higher reflecting lower foreign production prospects and stronger expected import demand from Mexico and Taiwan. 09/10 ending stocks are projected at 1.621 up 71 million bushels from last month. The 2009/10 marketing year average farm price is projected at US $3.10 - $3.90/bu down .25 cents on both ends of the range from last month.

Views: 526

▶ Reply to This

Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Moe Agostino on September 12, 2009 at 5:04am
Here is the latest market review....

This latest USDA Crop Production and WASDE report was neutral for corn soybeans and wheat.

There were no real big surprises as corn and soybean yields were slightly lower than the average estimate.

If there were any surprises it was the slight increase in ending stocks for both corn and soybeans and the increase in feed and residual use for corn. There was no change in ethanol use but with a record July and August production we expect ethanol use to go up in future reports particularly if oil prices remain at current levels.

Corn prices will bottom around US $3.00/bushel, soybeans in the US $8.50 - $$9.00/bu and wheat prices will bottom when corn does in the next 30 – 60 days. Wheat will lose a lot of acres this fall/winter and corn will need more acres next year in a rising demand environment. This will also put a bottom in for canola, oats and barley prices. Seasonally the lowest prices of the year are from October 1 – December 1 of each year. We feel that 2009 could be similar to 2006 when grain prices started to rally on October 1st of that year as the markets turned there attention to new crop and started worrying about having enough bushels to meet demand.



Demand has been stronger than most had expected and with the IMF projected a 2,5% GDP growth next year currently at a -1.3% coupled with our forecast for the US dollar to trade as low as US $72 cents will cause demand to trump supply and send grain prices higher in 2010. At current grain prices 2010/11 looks like an oilseed market once again.



We see very little downside risk from here more upside risk. Weather remains favorable for late crop development and temperatures are slightly above average for the 10-14 day forecast.





Until Next Week, Have a Great Weekend,



Maurizio (Moe) Agostino, HBA, DMS, FCSI

Managing Commodity Strategist

Farms.com Risk Management

Toll-Free: 1-877-438-5729 ext. 5040

Cell: 1-519-871-2134

Fax: 1-519-438-3152

E-mail: moe.agostino@farms.com

Website: http://riskmanagement.farms.com

▶ Reply to Discussion

RSS

Agriculture Headlines from Farms.com Canada East News - click on title for full story

Saskatchewan produced record crop in 2025

Saskatchewan produced a record 41.9 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds in 2025, up 13.7 per cent from the previous year, the agriculture ministry said Dec. 19. The record is also 24.1 per cent above the five-year average. Agriculture minister David Marit said resilient and innovative producers were able to overcome challenges such as drought to grow this amount. Records were set for canola production, at 12.2 million tonnes, and lentils at 2.9 million tonnes. By volume for other crops, the province’s producers grew 12.7 million tonnes of spring wheat, 5.4 million tonnes of durum, 3.5 million tonnes of barley, and 1.8 million tonnes each of dry peas and oats. The ministry said Saskatchewan saw significant production growth in lentils, up 37 per cent, canola 16.7 per cent, barley 16 per cent, durum 8.5 percent and spring wheat 5.3 per cent. The estimates provided by Statistics Canada are based on a post-harvest survey of 7,198 farmers from Oct. 3 to Nov. 6. The province has a ta

Canadians called slow to embrace biofuel policy

Canadians farmers have had a hard time embracing biofuel policy the same way that producers south of the border have, says Shaun Haney, founder of RealAgriculture. He told the MNP Ag Connections Conference in Medicine Hat in November that as Canada continues to struggle to get its agriculture commodities into China, a shift of outlook is needed. At one time, scientists, agronomists and growers were extremely worried clubroot would spread across the Prairies and devastate Canada’s canola industry. “Canadian farmers have a hard time totally getting their head around and supporting it because people will often say, ‘I want the government out of stuff, I don’t want industrial policy, I don’t want nation building. We can’t create demand through government policy’,” he said. “But, that is exactly what the (Renewable Fuel Standard) is in the Untied States.” The U.S. sees 40 to 45 per cent of its corn crop going into ethanol, from which Canada has benefited. While Canada continues to focu

Team Alberta Crops Breakfast – Through the Eyes of an Intern

As the new communications intern at Alberta Canola, the Team Alberta Crops breakfast was my first time at an agriculture policy event. I come from an urban background with limited exposure to farming. Insights from presenters Milt Poirier, from QGI Consulting, and Neil Blue, a provincial Crop Market Analyst with Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation, fundamentally changed my understanding of the agricultural industry. I no longer see Canadian agriculture as simply the production of farm products. Instead, I now view farming in the context of globally interconnected systems. These systems encompass the inputs that farmers rely on, the production processes, and the networks of processing and logistics. All of these systems are further shaped by external forces, including national and provincial policies, international trade rules, climate patterns, and technological innovations. Global Competition and Climate Challenge From Neil Blue’s talk, I learned that agriculture is a competit

The Future of Agriculture is Collaborative: A Vision for Stronger Partnerships

Taking on the role of Western Product Specialist at FP Genetics has been an exhilarating journey thus far. As someone passionate about agriculture since childhood, I’m excited to be part of an industry that combines science, relationships, and practical problem-solving. My primary focus will be to understand the connections between farmers, retailers, and the crops we nurture together. In my early days here, I dove into the fascinating world of epigenetics to uncover the secrets of how genetic traits impact plant performance. Each seed carries a narrative shaped by environmental factors and stress, and I’m dedicated to helping farmers understand their choices and the potential they hold. Working closely with Colin and Colette, my Saskatchewan and Alberta territory managers, has been both educational and transformative. We collaborate to first understand and then bridge the gap between our products and the retailers we support. Each retailer presents unique challenges and opportuniti

Women Farmers Drive Growth in Canadian Agriculture

Women are taking the reins in Canadian agriculture like never before. Statistics Canada reports nearly 90,000 female farm operators nationwide—up from 80,000 in 2021.

© 2025   Created by Darren Marsland.   Powered by

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service