Ontario Agriculture

The network for agriculture in Ontario, Canada

USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates Released

USDA NOVEMBER WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) REPORT HIGHLIGHTS

CORN

2009/10 corn production is projected at 12.9 billion bushels down 103 million bushels from October. The US national average yield is projected at 162.9bpa down 1.3bpa from last month. US corn exports are projected 50 million bushels lower reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments in recent weeks and prospects for increased competition from larger Black Sea corn and wheat supplies. US corn ending stocks are projected down 47 million bushels. The 2010 marketing year average farm price projection is raised 20 cents on each end of the range to $3.25 to $3.85 peer bushels. Global corn production for 2009/2010 is lowered 2.8 million with reduced production in the United States, Brazil, European Union, and Russia. Global course grain ending stocks are lower this month with 3.8 million ton reduction in world grain corn stocks.

SOYBEANS

Soybean production is estimated at 3.319 billion bushels, up 69 million from last month based on high yields vs. expectations of 3.27 billion bushels. Soybean yields are projected at 43.3 bpa up 0.9bpa from last month. Ending stocks are projected at 270 million bushels up 40 million bushels from last month vs. expectations of 230 million bushels. Soybean crush is raised 5 million due to higher projected soybean meal exports. Soybean exports are increased 20 million bushels to a record 1.32 billion reflecting increased supplies and increased global import demand mainly from China, EU-27, and Russia. Prices for soybeans and products are projected higher reflecting higher corn and soybean future prices. The 2009/10 marketing year average farm price is projected at US $8.20 - $10.20/bu, up 20 cents on both ends of the range from last month. Soybean meal prices are projected at $250 to $310 per short ton, up $5 on both ends of the range. Global oilseed production for 2009/2010 is projected 3.6 million tons higher due to increases in production by the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.

WHEAT

U.S. ending stocks for 2009/2010 are projected 21 million bushels higher at 885 million bushels compared to Octobers estimate of 864 million bushels, and the analyst expectation of 870 million bushels. Global wheat supplies are projected 1.7 million tons higher as increased production more than offset a reduction in beginning stocks. Foreign production is raised 3.9 million tons with most of the increase in FSU-12 as an extending growing season and favorable harvest weather boosted yields.

BOTTOM-LINE:

This November USDA WASDE report was viewed as bullish corn and bearish soybeans and wheat. An unexpected yield decrease to corn should help the market moving forward as ending stocks were moved lower. This report was bearish soybeans as production was increased based on a significant yield increase. We noted that if yields exceeded 43.4bpa than prices may test lows of $8.85, and the yield estimate was 43.3 so we may move close to the lows established in early October. Once again wheat supplies remain abundant both domestically and globally. Wheat will continue to look for corn to give it some much needed direction, but we still feel wheat has established a bottom moving forward into 2010 at US$4.40per bushel.


The crop progress was released yesterday showing that the harvest continues to struggle to progress. The corn crop is 32% harvested vs. the five year average of 82% and the soybean crop is 75% harvested compared to the five year average of 92%.

Moving forward we remain bullish corn as ending stocks are tightening, and harvest progress remains significantly behind. Low test weights, poor quality, and high moisture levels are also affecting this year’s corn crop. Soybeans were the most surprising this report as production and ending stocks were increased significantly. Moving forward this changes our 30-60 outlook to bearish, but long term into next year we remain bullish. Wheat supplies remain abundant but the wheat market is apt to be more affected by corn prices, than supply so we remain bullish wheat.


In other news, a story was out yesterday that Chinese corn production would be lower than many were expecting and Goldman Sachs is projecting higher corn prices, and corn deficits in the coming months as biofuel demand and a positive view of the energy market will push up prices. News from GS increased fund buying in the corn market immediate as open interest increased by 12k on Tuesday.

Please visit our website at www.riskmanagement.farms.com.

Let us know your thoughts on the USDA's activity this year.

Views: 91

▶ Reply to This

Agriculture Headlines from Farms.com Canada East News - click on title for full story

Guinness World Record attempt to take place in St. Albert on Aug. 22

?ST. ALBERT – If you have ever wanted to witness an attempt at a Guinness World Record, then you will want to be in St. Albert, Ontario on August 22 when an attempt will be made to set a record for the most plow blades pulled simultaneously.

Why Alignment Matters: Domestic Check-Off and the Import Levy

When Canadian beef producers sell cattle, they contribute to the national beef check-off. That investment supports work that benefits the broader Canadian beef industry, including market development, consumer demand, public and stakeholder engagement, and research. When beef or beef cattle are imported into Canada, an import levy is also collected. While the structure is not identical in every detail, the principle behind it is straightforward: beef marketed in Canada should help contribute to the programs that support beef demand in Canada. The national check-off paid by producers and the import levy paid on eligible imports are two parts of a broader investment approach. Together, they help ensure that both domestic beef production and imported beef products are connected to the market development work that strengthens beef’s position with Canadian consumers. For producers, the domestic cattle check-off is collected at the point of sale and includes both national and provincial po

I’ve noticed a lot of wild oat escapes in some of my fields this year; what can I do to prevent it from getting worse next year?

Despite our best efforts, sometimes even the best laid weed control plans go wrong! The first thing to remember is that not all weed escapes are created equal. In some cases, weeds can survive because of application timing issues, challenging weather conditions or late flushes that emerge after spraying. However, when weeds aren’t controlled by herbicide applications, herbicide resistance should also be on your radar. A recent survey in Manitoba found that in fields with uncontrolled wild oats, 100 per cent of populations were resistant to Group 1 products, 82 per cent were resistant to Group 2 products, and 82 per cent were resistant to both Group 1 and 2 herbicides. Those numbers show how important it is to take a closer look at wild oat weed escapes. Identifying why your herbicide failed to control wild oats is the first step toward finding a solution. Start by scouting the field to narrow down the cause. Consider factors such as application timing, weather conditions, late flush

Is fungicide actually effective on Sclerotinia head rot in sunflower?

This is one of the most difficult questions to answer because there are many things to consider. I also don’t want to be outright negative because we do still have options for sclerotinia management in sunflowers. However, management is the operative word. First of all, sclerotinia head rot infections have an interesting pathway. Spores use dead sunflower florets, plus pollen, as the base to infect a sunflower plant. The spores grow into the receptacle, infecting and decaying the entire head after a period of time. Sclerotinia wilt (basal stalk rot) and mid-stalk rot are also infected by the same sclerotinia species, but it will be via the mycelia that grow from the sclerotia bodies in the soil for basal stalk rot. Mid-stalk rot is also infected by ascospores, but this can be earlier in the season than head rot or at the same time. So, management of sclerotinia does not start at flowering. Crop rotation is the most obvious management tool that we are familiar with in sunflowers, but

Using Water More Efficiently in Beef Packing Plants

Packing plants use a time-tested approach to clean their facilities. The first step uses high-pressure hot water to remove fat and meat scraps from equipment, floors and walls. Next, surfaces are cleaned using detergent. Finally, sanitizers are used to further reduce bacterial numbers. Processing companies want to reduce water use as part of their environmental goals and to reduce energy bills. High-pressure water and steam can produce aerosols that capture bacteria and spread them throughout the plant. They can then settle on and cross-contaminate clean surfaces long after the cleaning has been completed, which complicates efforts to effectively clean facilities. Biofilms are another problem. Biofilms are colonies of bacteria surrounded by a protective layer that firmly attaches them to surfaces and shelters the bacteria from hot water, detergents and sanitizers. Biofilms are hard to remove and are commonly found in hard-to-reach places. These researchers investigated potential cro

© 2026   Created by Darren Marsland.   Powered by

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service