Winter Wheat: Did you get any planted, how does the crop look...US Plantings at 97 year low. Comments.

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Permalink Reply by Joe Dales on January 25, 2010 at 4:28am

Winter Wheat - USDA Analysis
By Stu Ellis,

USDA statisticians reported significant acreage declines for both hard red wheat and soft red wheat when the Wheat Seedings report was released on January 12. But few people are getting concerned, and certainly not the marketplace. Apparently the fall weather that prevented wheat planting was fortuitous since demand for wheat has fallen. The USDA says exports will be down 50 million bushels in the wake of strong foreign wheat trade, and US ending stocks will be growing along with lower domestic and foreign demand. Is US wheat going the way of oats?

Agriculture Department economists writing in the latest Wheat Outlook describe the abundant stocks, lack of exports, growing carryover, and the $2 drop in prices just since 2008/09. The wheat price was part of the reason for skimpy planted acreage that totals barely more than 37 million acres, according to USDA economists. HRW acreage was less than 28 million, down 12% from last year, and down 700,000 acres in Kansas alone, which is the least since 1957. SRW acreage is under 6 million acres, with record low acreage in IL, IN, MO, and OH. IL acreage is down 59%, a 500,000 acre plummet from 2008/09.

Curiously, world wheat production is up by 2.3 million tons to 676 million for the 2009/10 production year. Russia reports record high production in some regions, along with large production increases in Brazil. With high production also come high global stocks that are expected to reach 196 million tons. That level of stocks has only been surpassed once. Even though consumption has increased, stocks are still expected to reach a 30% ratio with use for the current marketing year, up 18% from two years ago.

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