The CFFO Commentary: Prognostications for Farming in 2011

Alberta Crops Still Above Average, But Moisture Extremes Mean Farmers Can Expect Two Different Harvest Stories

Provincial crop ratings remain stronger than the five-year average, but Alberta farmers are dealing with a sharp regional split: declining moisture in the South and Central regions and persistent wet conditions farther north. Alberta’s 2026 crop is still looking comparatively strong heading into August, but the provincial average masks very different conditions from one end of the province to the other. As of Aug. 4, 58.1 per cent of Alberta’s major crops were rated in good-to-excellent condition. That is well above the five-year average of 42.7 per cent and close to the 10-year average of 53.9 per cent. At the same time, the provincial rating slipped from 60.3 per cent a week earlier, reflecting growing pressure in several regions. The bigger story for farmers is the province’s moisture divide. Parts of southern and central Alberta continue to dry out, with soil moisture reserves declining. In the North East, North West and Peace regions, producers are facing almost the opposite p

Survey-Based Yield Estimates Show Mixed Outlook for 2026 U.S. Corn, Soybean Crops

The USDA’s first survey-based yield estimates of the season point to a lower average U.S. corn yield in 2026 but only a modest decline for soybeans, with wide differences among major producing states. In its August crop production estimates released Wednesday, the USDA pegged the national corn yield at 180.7 bu/acre, down from 186.5 bu in 2025. The U.S. soybean yield was forecast at 52.7 bu/acre, just below last year’s 53 bu. In the biggest Corn Belt states, Iowa’s 2026 corn yield is estimated at 216 bu/acre, up 6 bu from 210 last year. Illinois is projected at 212 bu/acre, down 2 bu from 214. Closer to the Great Lakes, Michigan slipped to 174 bu/acre from 178, while Ohio posted a notable increase to 195 bu from 185. Meanwhile, the average North Dakota corn yield is forecast at 142 bu/acre, down sharply from 158 last year. Despite Iowa’s higher yield, lower harvested acreage is expected to pull state corn production down slightly to 2.765 billion bu, a decline of less than 1% fro

USDA Forecasts Smaller U.S. Durum, Spring Wheat Crops

U.S. wheat production is headed for a steep year-over-year decline in 2026, with the USDA forecasting total output at just 1.53 billion bu, down 23% from 2025 and the lowest since 1970. Most of the decline is in winter wheat – with output now forecast at roughly 990 million bu, down about 29% on the year. However, Wednesday's USDA crop production report pared the 2026 U.S. durum and other spring wheat estimates as well. The drop in the durum estimate was particularly steep. The USDA now forecasts this year's American crop at 66.4 million bu, down 6% from its July estimate and 23% below last year. Following a review of acreage data, USDA reduced estimated durum planted area to 1.78 million acres, down 3% from the previous acreage estimate and 19% from 2025. Harvested area is forecast at 1.73 million acres, also 19% below last year. At the same time, the national durum yield was reduced to 38.4 bu/acre, down 1.5 bu from the July forecast and 2.2 bu from 2025. Farmers in North Dak

Saskatchewan Harvest Progress Stalls

Harvest stalled across Saskatchewan this past week as cooler weather slowed field operations, leaving just 2% of the provincial crop in the bin as of Monday, unchanged from the previous week. Progress remains behind both the five-year average of 6% and the 10-year average of 5%, although it is slightly ahead of last year’s 1%. According to Thursday's weekly provincial crop report, harvest activity continues to be concentrated in winter cereals, early seeded pulses and a few spring cereal crops, while much of the province’s crop is still developing. The Southwest remains furthest advanced at 5% harvested, followed by the Southeast and East-Central regions at 1%. Harvest has not yet begun in the West-Central, Northeast, or Northwest regions. Among individual crops, fall rye was 27% harvested and winter wheat 18% complete. Barley was at 4% harvested as of Monday, with oats at 2%. Spring wheat harvest remains negligible, while field peas are 5% complete and lentils 2%. Canola, soyb

On the Road with 4-H Alberta: 2026 Ag Next Gen Tour

Follow 12 4-H Alberta members as they spend 10 days exploring agriculture across central and southern Alberta during the 2026 4-H Ag Next Gen Tour. Day One | July 13 Tour Highlights Began the tour at the Alberta 4-H Centre Visited Colin Rice Feedlot and learned about beef production Took part in an interactive producer journey challenge at AFSC’s Lacombe Central Office Explored lending, insurance, claims and financial processing through hands-on activities Visited Pleasant Valley Oil Mills to learn about value-added agriculture Travelled to Rochon Sands Provincial Park for the evening Ag in action at AFSC Participants visited AFSC’s Lacombe Central Office for an interactive experience that followed the journey of a producer. Working in teams, participants moved through a series of stations focused on lending, insurance, claims and financial processing. Along the way, they worked through real-world scenarios and learned how different parts of AFSC support producers through every st