CFFO Blog's Blog – August 2011 Archive (3)

Pulse Market Insight #300

Indian Monsoon Outcome Key for Pulse Outlooks We think it’s important to not react too quickly to weather events, and particularly forecasts. For example, the crop outlook in western Canada has already made a number of sharp U-turns, and it’s only mid-June. As we get further into the growing season, outcomes will become more certain and the outlook will become clearer. Even though we don’t want to bet too much on weather forecasts, there is a potential situation in India that certainly bears watching. Recently, the Indian Meteorology Department lowered its rain forecast for the southwest monsoon season to 90% of the long-term average, based on the potential for a large El Niño event. This was the lowest IMD monsoon forecast in at least 20 years. The actual monsoon performance doesn’t always line up with the IMD forecast, but the accuracy of its forecasts seems to be better in recent years. While there’s plenty of uncertainty in the forecast, it’s worth noting that back in 2014/15 an

Chicago Close: Lower Ahead of U.S. Juneteenth Holiday

Corn, wheat and soybean futures all finished lower on Thursday as traders adjusted positions ahead of the long U.S. holiday weekend. Chicago markets will be closed Friday for the Juneteenth federal holiday. Corn futures weakened despite generally supportive export news. The USDA confirmed private sales of 285,775 tonnes of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2026/27 marketing year. Meanwhile, today’s weekly USDA export sales report showed about 1.16 million tonnes of old-crop corn and 519,035 tonnes of new-crop supplies. Old-crop sales were within trade expectations, while new-crop bookings fell short of the upper end of forecasts. July corn lost 3 ½ cents to $4.17 ½, and December dropped 4 ¾ cents to $4.44. A stronger U.S. dollar added pressure across the grain complex after the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday reinforced expectations for higher interest rates. A rising dollar makes U.S. agricultural commodities more expensive for overseas customers. Wheat futu

Saskatchewan Crop Conditions Slip but Still Strong

Saskatchewan crop conditions generally weakened through the first half of June but remain strong overall. Thursday’s crop report pegged the Saskatchewan canola crop at 76% good to excellent as of Monday, down 13 points from the province’s initial 2026 rating of 89% on June 1. Spring wheat was rated 82% good to excellent as of Monday, down from 90% on June 1. Durum slipped just 1 point to 89%, while winter wheat fell 6 points to 79%. Conditions also deteriorated for most feed grains. Oats declined 8 points to 80% good to excellent, and barley dropped 6 points to 83%. Among pulse and specialty crops, peas fell 6 points to 85% good to excellent, while chickpeas declined 3 points to 93%. Mustard dropped 4 points to 88%, and soybeans were down 6 points to 70%. Flax was unchanged at 87%, and lentils were down 9 points at 86%. Canaryseed was one of the few crops to improve, edging up 1 point to 88% good to excellent. Saskatchewan seeding advanced slowly over the past week, hitting

Fertilizer Canada supports Mercosur trade deal

Canadian policy must enhance potash competitiveness, the group said

Canadians pay $224 per year for supply management, a new report says

A think tank compared product prices in Canada with those in the U.S.